2 Unproven Quarterbacks Who are Way Overvalued in Dynasty

If the goal of dynasty fantasy football is to have the best possible team for as long as possible, then it makes sense that you want some young guys on your roster. Older vets have their place on certain teams, but not everyone wants them. Everyone seems to chase after the young guys. I have fallen victim to this myself, thinking it’s time to move off an aging vet for a younger asset only to see that vet go nuts for a couple more years. For example, I traded James Conner away before the 2021 season and what did he do? Just finish as the RB5 on the year and earn himself another year or 2 as the starter for the Cardinals. Another example of trading away a vet too early is Tom Brady. Imagine the people who traded away Tom Brady for whatever they could after he left the Patriots. They missed out on 2, probably 3 years of elite production. It would have been hard to see this coming with either player as they looked like they were trending in the wrong direction, but it still prompts the question; where do we draw the line between youth and established veteran production?

We all know that young, elite players are gold in fantasy football and I’m not saying we are overvaluing them. Guys like Justin Herbert, Jamar Chase, and Jonathan Taylor are some of the most expensive dynasty assets to acquire because they have shown elite production at a very young age. They cost a lot, but they should. They’ve shown they’re incredible players and their youth means they should be good for a long time, making them worth the astronomical price.

While these young, elite producers are worth it, I think there is a certain group of players that have not yet shown elite production, but they are being valued like elite players simply because they are young. I want to highlight a couple of quarterbacks from the 2021 class to make this point. Trevor Lawrence was the consensus 1.01 rookie pick in Superflex, but he finished as the QB23 in 2021. Despite that, you’d be lucky if you could get Lawrence for 2 first-round picks. He would likely cost you more. The other player is Justin Fields who was usually going as a top 3 rookie pick in the 2021 draft class and finished as the QB18 in points per game (Fields only played 9 full games). Fields is going at a similar but slightly cheaper price to Lawrence.

Now, I’m not saying that you should go trade Lawrence or Fields for Tom Brady, even though Brady will likely outscore them in 2022. But should you trade Lawrence or Fields for Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson? This is the kind of thing I want to examine.

The reason Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are valued so highly is because of their perceived upside. If either of them become a top 5 quarterback, you just hit the lottery. Not only would you have a top quarterback, you would likely have one for quite a while. I understand why this sounds so sexy, but at some point, you must look at the potential downsides.

There’s no doubt that Lawrence and Fields were great prospects coming out of college but now we have seen them play in the NFL for a year, or 9 games in Fields’ case. What do we know about them after year 1? They are on bad teams with mediocre weapons when compared to the rest of the league. They did both get a head coaching change which should hopefully help, but that’s no guarantee that these offenses will become good. The point I’m trying to make is there is no guarantee that Lawrence or Fields ever become elite fantasy quarterbacks, yet we are valuing them like they already are.

Now, we’ve seen good quarterbacks end up on bad teams and turn things around quickly. The best and most recent example we have of this is Joe Burrow. He was drafted to the worst team in the league at the time, and 2 years later he took them to the Superbowl. This is incredibly rare and it just shows how good Burrow is.

I’m not expecting the same thing, or even something similar out of Lawrence or Fields though. These guys are on teams who historically have not had good quarterbacks. For whatever reason, some teams just don’t know how to develop them. But just because a quarterback performs badly in real life doesn’t mean he can’t be good in fantast right? Well yes, but only for so long. Let’s look at Blake Bortles, the last significant starting quarterback for the Jaguars. Bortles had some very good fantasy seasons finishing as the QB4, QB8, and QB13 in his 2nd through 4th years. Those are some great fantasy seasons, and if you owned him in dynasty during that time you probably thought you had a massive steal and were set up for the future. But then reality set in, and Bortles wasn’t a good enough real-life quarterback to keep his starting job and the Jaguars moved on. Since then, Bortles has bounced around the league as a backup. Lawrence is obviously more talented than Bortles ever was, but no matter how good you are, if you can’t win games you will eventually get replaced.

Let’s look at another example in Mitch Trubisky, the last significant starter for the Bears. Trubisky was not nearly as good in fantasy as Bortles was, but he wasn’t much better as an NFL quarterback either. Like Bortles, Trubisky managed to make the playoffs one year, but that wasn’t enough for the Bears to keep him around. Even after trading up to grab Trubisky at 2nd overall in the draft, higher than they drafted Fields, they let him go after 4 years. Everyone thinks things are gonna be different for Fields, but history says it’s unlikely.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Lawrence and Fields as players. They’re both talented and may even be able to be good fantasy quarterbacks. The problem I foresee is that they never become good enough NFL quarterbacks to keep their teams from replacing them. So while their youth is sexy now, in 3 or 4 years they could be done as starters. The worst part of this is that there are guys out there right now who are elite and should remain elite for the next 3-4 years.

The guys I’m talking about are Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and to a lesser extent Derek Carr. But Let’s focus on Wilson and Stafford for a minute. Both of these guys have been great for a long time but are now in situations where they can be top 8-10 quarterbacks for the next 3-5 years, maybe more. Stafford just put up a QB5 season in his first year with the Rams. It’s unlikely that things could get much better for him, but very likely he’s a top 10 quarterback for 3 more years, if not longer. Wilson finds himself on a new team but with great weapons around him and finally away from Pete Carrol who wanted to pound the rock 35+ times a game even with one of the best passers in the league. Wilson could be in for one of his best statistical years in 2022 and could keep that up for another 3+ years at least.

Let’s talk about age for a second with these guys. They’ll both be 34 years old this season. That’s not young but it’s not old either for a quarterback. I don’t think either of these guys are Tom Brady and will play until they’re 45, but who knows. Is it within the realm of possibility that one or both of them are still starting quarterbacks at 40? I think so. But even if you think that’s too crazy, is it within the realm of possibility that they’re both starting quarterbacks longer than Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields? I think that’s way more possible.
What I’m trying to illustrate is that Wilson and Stafford could continue to be elite fantasy quarterbacks longer than Lawrence and Fields could be NFL starting quarterbacks. The crazy thing is that some people have the young guys as more valuable in dynasty.

As someone who has fallen for the sexiness of youth and upside, I am trying to take a more realistic approach with this situation here. I think it is more realistic for Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford to remain elite fantasy quarterbacks over the next 3-5 years than it is for Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to become elite fantasy quarterbacks. The vets are proven talents in great offenses with teams that will continue to put good players around them. The young guys are on historically incompetent teams at developing quarterbacks and building good offenses. Things can change quickly in the NFL, but if I were betting on who will be elite for fantasy 3 years from now, I’m going with the vets.

If I had Trevor Lawrence and could trade him straight up for Russell Wilson, I absolutely would. I’d even throw a little on top to get a deal done for Russ. If I had Justin Fields, I would absolutely trade him straight up for Matthew Stafford. Yes, the upside is there with the young guys, but the chances of them reaching the level of production the vets are already at is slim.

Let’s get back to Derek Carr for a second. I’ve mentioned in previous articles that I really like Carr and would be targeting him, and I like him over Fields and Lawrence as well. I think it’s more about value with Carr. You could probably trade Lawrence for Carr and a 1st and I would absolutely do that. You might be able to do the same thing with Fields, but you’d probably have to throw something small back. I’d do that deal as well.

Carr is another guy who could outscore Fields and Lawrence for the next 5 years and be around after those guys potentially get replaced. Carr is 31 and in a great spot to succeed. He just got Davante Adams who should elevate Carr to a top 10 fantasy quarterback. If you’re telling me you could trade away a guy for someone comparable with a solid chance of being better, AND get a high value pick, that’s something you should do all day.

Again, I know everyone is enamored with these young guys because of their potential upside, but sometimes you have to take the more likely outcome that’s sitting right in front of you. The youth and upside sounds amazing until it’s not. Then, you’re left with a guy you can’t trade away for a 2nd. Quarterback is the most important position in Superflex so you don’t want to mess it up. Yes, you could potentially miss out on the next great fantasy QB, but I don’t think you’re gonna regret having Wilson, Stafford, or Carr on your team for the next 3 seasons. There’s a good chance you regret hanging on to Lawrence or Fields though.

You may be asking why I’m not lumping Trey Lance in with Lawrence and Fields. It’s true, Lance can fall into that category of overvalued young quarterback who hasn’t produced. The reason I’m not lumping him in with those guys is the same reason I wanted Lance over Lawrence and Fields in 2021 rookie drafts. Lance is on a good team with great weapons and a coach that knows how to make an average quarterback look very good. I think even if Lance is less talented than the Lawrence and Fields, he has a much higher chance of success because of his team situation. The 49ers know how to win and most importantly they know how to put talent around their quarterback. The Jaguars and Bears have proven that they are incapable of both. Everyone always wants to say that talent should alwasy trump landing spot in dynasty, but I don’t think that applies when looking at these 3 quarterbacks. The landing spot for Lance is so much better it’s not even in the same conversation. That is why I’m not worried about Trey Lance.

It’s possible that Lance is in the same boat as Lawrence and Fields and gets replaced in 2-3 years, but I think it’s less likely. Would I still take Wilson and Stafford over Lance? I think so. As much as I like Lance’s upside given his situation, I would still take the proven vets over him. Would I take Carr over him? If I could get a 2023 1st and Carr for Lance I would do that. Overall, I’m siding with the elite veterans over the unproven young guys. I’ve gotten burned before by not siding with experience and proven production over youth and upside. I’m sure I will no doubt make that mistake again, but I’m trying not to with this group of guys.