You Need to Get a Piece of the AFC West

There always seems to be one or two loaded divisions in the NFL. The NFC West was loaded for a while until the departure of Russell Wilson. The AFC North has been pretty stacked as well in the past few years. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any division quite as loaded as the AFC West is in 2022 however.

Let’s start with the Denver Broncos selling the farm for Russell Wilson, a great move that makes them instant Superbowl contenders. The Broncos were stacked pretty much everywhere but quarterback and now this becomes a top 10 offense for 2022. Wilson will be throwing to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick and will have Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in the backfield. Absolute insanity.

The Chiefs also went through some big changes. They traded away Tyreek Hill but brought in a trio of new wide receivers with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore. These guys will join Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, making it clear that the Chiefs love guys with hyphenated last names. Many will look at the loss of Tyreek Hill and think this will cause the Chiefs offense to take a huge step back but I think the new wide receiver additions should be able to make up for Hill’s absence.

The Raiders didn’t want to feel left out of the party so they made a huge move as well. They traded for Davante Adams, one of the best wide receivers in the league. They desperately needed a wide receiver after they’d been missing that alpha guy since they traded away Amari Cooper. Adams will join Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, an incredible pass-catching trio for Derek Carr to throw to.

That leaves us with the Chargers who didn’t make any high-profile trades like the rest of the division but still improved in the draft. Justin Herbert is going into year 3 and he still has his elite weapons like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. This team was one play away from going to the playoffs in 2021 and they should easily be in the conversation for 2022.

Now that we’ve summed up the off-season for these teams, onto why you need to acquire guys from the AFC West. This division has always been known for high-scoring games, but that should approach a level we have not seen before in 2022. I would not be shocked to see the average of combined scores in these divisional games over 60 points. The defenses are good in the AFC West, don’t get me wrong, but the offenses are just insane.

Every divisional game has shootout potential. When a player has at least 6 games with shootout potential on their schedule, that’s a player you want to target. Now I know what you’re thinking, “But aren’t the players in that division expensive?” Yes and no. Mahomes and Herbert are both top 3 dynasty assets. Russell Wilson is expensive as well as he’s likely valued as a top 10 dynasty quarterback. Javonte Williams will also cost a pretty penny, but outside of that, these guys can be acquired for reasonable prices. Obviously, you can still trade for the super expensive guys, and I would if you can, but they’re going to cost you. These guys are elite dynasty assets for a reason after all.

Let’s start with Davante Adams who was the WR2 just last year after being the WR1 in 2020. Adams steps into a good offense with Derek Carr throwing to him. Carr is not Aaron Rodgers, and that combined with increased target competition has dropped Adams’ value to a point where he’s attainable. Adams signed a 5-year extension with the Raiders but has 3 years guaranteed. Let’s assume that Adams will be elite for another 3 years then. I’m not expecting him to put up the ridiculous numbers he put up as the only capable target for the Packers the past few years, but I do still expect top 5 to 10 production from Adams. You will probably have to pay a 1st plus a lesser asset, but that seems well worth it to get an elite player in this division.

Because of Adams’ arrival, Waller and Renfrow can be had at a discount. This makes sense because they should see a slight drop in targets and thus a drop in production, but they are still worth trading for. Waller is 29 and coming off an injury-plagued season, but you shouldn’t worry about his age. Many people still have Kelce as the redraft TE1 in 2022 at 32 years old. Waller could still put up some really good seasons for the next 3-5 years and is worth trading for. Renfrow could be a good WR3 for years and would probably cost a WR4 price at this point. Overall, I like trading for all of the Raiders players given their price, especially Carr who unlike the others should see increased production in 2022.

Carr is on the cheaper end of the quarterback spectrum and he could easily put up top 10 numbers with the weapons he has. Carr is still only 31 years old and just signed an extension with the Raiders. There's not a ton of guaranteed money on the deal but I'm not too concerned with it as Carr should continue to perform at a high enough level for the Raiders to keep him around. With his main weapons tied to the team for the next few years at least, I like the idea of trading for Carr, especially at his price, which would probably be a 1st plus a lesser asset.

The last Raiders player we need to discuss is Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been a solid running back throughout his career with finishes of RB8 and RB11 in the past 2 years. He seems to be someone who's always undervalued. Now, there are a few knocks against Jacobs going into 2022, firstly that the team did not pick up his 5th-year option. With the future being uncertain, I'm less inclined to trade for Jacobs than the other guys on this team, but depending on how your league values him you maybe be able to get him for cheap. The other issue for Jacobs is that the Raiders brought in Zamir White in the draft who will likely take a decent amount of catches away from Jacobs. Jacobs 54 receptions really boosted his fantasy production in 2021 and a drop in receiving production could put him outside the top 15 running backs. All that said, I think Jacobs is a rock-solid RB2 for 2022 and is good enough to earn a 2nd contract. If you can get him for a 2022 late first as he's valued on Keep Trade Cut, you should absolutely make that move.

Let’s move on to the Broncos now. I already mentioned that Russell Wilson and Javonte Williams will cost a lot in trades, but they are still worth trading for as they should hold their value and produce great fantasy numbers for the next few years at least. The next guy I love to target is Jerry Jeudy. He has been a massive disappointment through the first 2 years of his career but he missed half of 2021 from an ankle injury and he was playing with Bridgewater and Drew Lock while healthy. I don’t think it would be crazy to expect a DK Metcalf-type breakout with Russell Wilson coming in this year. Jeudy is still just 23 and a great talent, with a great quarterback coming in, he will no doubt have his best year as a pro. The price is probably slightly elevated based on how little Jeudy has produced for fantasy, but I think there is still room for growth. Jeudy can be had for a 1st in some cases, but I’d be willing to throw in a little extra to get Jeudy. The breakout is coming. If Jeudy posts a top 15 wide receiver season I think he will jump into the top 10 dynasty wide receivers after this season.

If you want to go slightly cheaper, Courtland Sutton is a good option. Some people may value him higher than Jeudy because they see him as the number 1 receiver in this offense (he’s not, Jeudy has dominated targets when they are both on the field, and Jeudy averaged 7.5 points to Sutton's 3.97). People also think Sutton fits the DK role perfectly because he’s a similar size but I don’t like penciling him in for that just because of size. Regardless, he can still be good for fantasy as Wilson has produced 2 top 20 receivers for years. I would not pay near Jeudy prices, but if you can get Sutton at a reasonable price I would make a move for him. Melvin Gordon is a great piece for a contender to trade for. He could theoretically split the work evenly with Javonte Williams as they did last year and if that happens, Gordon could easily be a top 25 running back. I think it’s more likely the split favors Williams slightly, but still, Gordon will be heavily involved. He can be had for a 2nd in most cases and if you need a running back or flex for 2022, go get Gordon.

The other player to mention here is Albert Okwuegbunam. Okwuegbunam has started his career in the shadow of Noah Fant, but Fant is now in Seattle and there are targets available. Russell Wilson has historically produced decent fantasy tight ends and if Okwuegbunam can be anywhere close to Fant as an athlete, he has a shot at being a top 12 tight end. I’m not as willing to trade for him given the hype around a guy who is so unproven, but I would rather take a shot on him than many other tight ends out there. If the price is right, send out an offer for Albert Okwuegbunam.

Let’s talk Chargers next. Everyone would love to have Justin Herbert on their team but that’s a tough ask since some people have him as their dynasty QB1. If you want to sell the farm for Herbert I won’t blame you. The guys I’d be more willing to trade for here are the receivers. Keenan Allen has been a top PPR wide receiver for years now. He’s 30 so he’s in the back end of his career, but my guess is he still has a few years left as Herbert’s top target. Allen is another contending piece, but he has a top 15 floor with top 5 upside and a reasonable price.

Mike Williams is the other Chargers wide receiver you’d want to trade for. He has been very inconsistent from year to year, but the team just gave him a big contract so that shows they must believe in him to finally be that consistent number 2 to Allen. While Williams may be inconsistent from week to week, he has week-winning upside that very few guys have. He’s someone you’d love to have in the flex spot. Williams and Allen go for about the same price so it all depends on what you like if you’re looking to trade for one of these guys. You could go for the rock-solid guy who may only have a few years left, or the boom-bust guy who should last a little longer but may disappoint at times.

Austin Ekeler is the other obvious Chargers player you’d want to trade for. He just finished as the RB2 in 2021 and there doesn’t seem to be any reason he would be slowing down. Ekeler is 27 so he’s at the typical running back age cliff, but he has not been a typical running back throughout his career. 2021 was actually the most carries he’s ever had with 206 and before that he’d never had more than 132 in a season. I think the Chargers recognized this which is why they brought in Isaiah Spiller. I think it’s possible Ekeler returns to more of his typical workload this year, with fewer carries and more catches, however, he should still get the red zone touches and there will be a lot of those on this team. Ekeler is still pretty expensive even at his age, but he should age better than most running backs. I could see him as a 120 carry and 60 catch guy even as a 30-year-old. Ekeler is a freak in the gym and taking care of his body so he should keep going strong for years. He will likely cost you a couple of 1sts but that could be well worth it for a contending team looking to make a leap in 2022.

The Chiefs are the last team we’ll talk about here and they probably have the most variance in the value of their players among teams in this division. Mahomes is a top 2 dynasty asset, then there’s a steep drop. Kelce is still worth quite a bit even going into his age 32 season and then another drop. The next most valuable player on this team is Skyy Moore who has never played in the NFL. Clyde Edwards Helaire, Juju Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdes-Scantling, and Ronald Jones make up the lower value tier of guys. Now with all that said, I would trade for most of these guys. The reason? When was the last time you could get Chiefs players this cheap? Outside of Mahomes, these guys are all values in their own way.

Kelce could be a top 5 tight end for another 5 years if he plays that long, and there’s no reason to think he won’t. He’s been extremely durable in his career and we’ve seen elite tight ends like Tony Gonzalez play until 37. Kelce is still expensive but not compared to younger guys like Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews and he could very possibly outproduce them until he retires. Moving on to the receivers, I like all of them at their prices. Skyy Moore is usually going around the 1.09-1.12 pick in rookie drafts and I love him at that price. He’s not as elite of a prospect as guys going earlier like Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, or Chris Olave, but he’s arguably in the best situation with the best quarterback. It’s unlikely he fills the Tyreek Hill role, especially as a rookie, but he can carve out his own role for himself. Moore is someone I would really like to target either in rookie drafts or in a trade.

Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling interest me as well. Juju has been a very good receiver at times and in his last few years with the Steelers it just seems like he was forced into a role where he was underutilized. He was their short-yardage guy and while he racked up a lot of catches, he didn’t put up many yards. I think that can change with the Chiefs. I think Juju will slot in as the number 2 target behind Kelce to start the season. I could see him averaging close to 7 targets per game, and that would be incredible coming from Mahomes. Smith-Schuster can usually be had for a 2nd which I would trade for him all day. The only knock against Juju is that he’s on another 1-year contract which hurts his dynasty value. If he leaves the Chiefs next year that would be a huge blow to his value. Valdes-Scantling was signed to be the deep target on this team. He was the deep target for the Packers for years but unfortunately that didn’t translate to much fantasy production. Valdes-Scantling has never finished as a top 50 fantasy receiver but hopefully that changes this year. Valdes-Scantling can be had for a late 2nd which I think is worth it to get a piece of this offense. Valdes-Scantling will still be a boom or bust guy, but the boom weeks should be huge. Overall, one of these 3 new wide receivers should become startable in fantasy football in 2022, so I’m fine with taking a shot at one of them at their differing price points.

As for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the sentiment around him as a massive bust has opened up a good buying opportunity. There’s a chance that his owner is fed up with him and just wants to ship him off for anything of value. Clyde can sometimes be had for a 2nd and I think that’s a great price, especially if it’s a 2022 2nd. While I have some doubts about Edwards-Helaire, the potential is still there. If the Chiefs could just figure out how to use him for what he was drafted for, pass-catching, he would be a worthwhile fantasy running back. The problem for Edwards-Helaire has been Mahomes’ lack of checking the ball down. Instead of an easy dump-off to Clyde, Mahomes would run around for 5 seconds and inexplicably find Tyreek Hill deep. Now that Hill is gone, maybe Clyde can start catching more passes. He can still be a top 30 running back if he can just get the workload, and if you’re desperate at running back, I like Clyde more than anyone in the 2022 class besides Hall, Walker, and Cook.
Ronald Jones is an interesting player in this offense as well. The Chiefs have not run the ball much since the departure of Kareem Hunt but maybe that changes this year. The Chiefs lost one of their best pass-catchers and didn’t exactly replace him with elite guys, so maybe more runs are in the cards this year. If that happens, Jones could push for most of the work Darrel Williams left behind and maybe more. Jones has 2 top 30 seasons under his belt and a 3rd could be coming this year if things break right for him. Jones can be had for a late 2nd which I would trade for him If I needed a running back.

Well, hopefully I was able to paint a good enough picture of why you need to trade for players in the AFC West and who you should be targeting. This division will produce a lot of high-scoring games which means a lot of fantasy points to go around. There are elite players in the AFC West who will cost you an arm, a leg, and maybe your first-born child, but there are plenty of cheaper options as well. If you’re looking to fill a need on your team, especially at wide receiver, look for the AFC West guys first. The insane boom week upside isn’t really baked into their price, but it’s something that should be. Go get yourself one of these guys before the first huge game of the season when people catch on.